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2026 Credit Outlook
Commentary 12? 2025

???: ??? ?????? ‘? ??’ ??

2026? ?? ??

  • ???? ?? ??? ?????, ???, ???, ??????(ABF)? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ????.
  • ???, ??, ??, ??? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ? ???? ????, ??? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????.
  • ??? ??? ?? ????? ??? ? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ?????.

??????? 2026?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ????.??? ????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??, ??·?? ???????? ????? ???? ????. ??? ?? ????? ???????? ??? ???? ???, ????? ?? ???? ??? ??? ????? ??? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?????.

?? ??? ?????

????? ????? ???? ???? ??? ??????, ???? 2026??? ???? ????? ???? ???. ??? ???? ????? ??? ?????, ?? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ?????? ? ?? ??? ?????. ?? ???? ? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ??? ???, ??? ??? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ????.

??, ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ?? ?? ???? ???. ???? ??? ????, ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ?????.

?? ???, ???? ????? ?? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ?????. ??? ?? ?? ???? ?? ??? ????, ????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? ? ????. ?? ??? ???? ?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ? ???? ??? ???? ????? ? ????.

??? ??: ??? ?? ??

?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???? ????. ?? ??, ??? ????? ?? ?? ?? ??? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???, 2025?CMBS ?? ??? 1,200? ??? ??? ??? ?????(?? 9 ??). ?? 2007? ?? ?? ?????. CMBS? ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??,??? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?????. ??, ???? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ? 17% ?? ??? ??? ??,?? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ???? ????. ??? ??, ?? 2?? ? 1? 9,000??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ????, 2025? ?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??? 150???????(bp) ?? ??? ??? ???? ????.??

?? 9: ???? ??? ???? ????, ??? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?

???

??? ???, ?? ???? ? ????? 8? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ????. ??, ??? ?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ??????? ????, ?? ???? ???, ???? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ??? ???? ???, ?????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ?? ????. ????? ??? ?? ???? ???? ?? 2?? ??? ??, ??? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????? ???? ??? ???? ????.

??? ??, ?? ? ? 400? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ?? ?? 22% ???? ? ??? ?? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??????.?? ???-???? ?? ? ?? ???? ????? ?? ??? ??? ??? ????? ????, ??? ?? ????????? ???? ???? ??? ?????.

??? ????? ????? ??? ?? ??? ?????. ??? ??? ?? 2022? ?? ?? 40% ?? ????, ?? ??? 15%? ????? ???? ??, ????? ???? ??, ????? ??? ???? ????? ???? ??? ???? ????? ??? ??? ???? ????. ???? ???·??? ?????? ???? ??? ? ??????, ????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ?? 10?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????.

??? ????? ?? ?? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ???, 2025? CMBS ????? 1,200? ??? ??? ????????. ?? 2007? ?? ???????.

??? ??: ??? ??

??? ??? ??? ??? ?????. ???? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????. ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??? ???? ????. ?? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ????? ???? ???, ?? ??? ??? ?? ??(????? ??) ???? ? ????? ??? ????.

??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ???????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ???? ???, ??? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ????. ? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????(?? 10 ??). ??? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ????? ??? ???????, ???? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?? ???? ???? ??? ?????, ???? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ? ????. ??? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?? ????? ???? ????????? ?? ??? ????, ????? ?????? ????? ? ??? ???? ?????. ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?????, ????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??? ???????(??)? ??? ??? ? ???, ? ??? ????? ?? ? ????.

??? ??? ? ??? ???? ?? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??? ? ???, ?? ??? ?? ??????? ??? ???? ??·??·?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? AI ?? ?????? ??? ?? ????. ?? 10?? ??? AI ??? ??? 7? ?????? ??? ???? ???,?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ?????? ? ????.

?? 10: ??? ????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ??? ? ??

???

???: ??? ?

???? ?? ? ???? ??? ?? ??? ????? ???? ???????. ??·???? ????? ????? ?? 15? ??? ??? ??????? ?? ?????, ???? ?? ?????? ??? ? 150bp? ????? ???? ??,?? ??? ?? ????? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ?????.

???? ? ???? ?? ??? ?????2024/2025?? ?? ?? ??????, ??? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ?????. ??, ?? ?? ?? ??? ????? ??? ????? ??????. ??? ??? ????? ??? ??? ?????, ??? ?? ????? ????????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ????.???? ?? ??? ??? ???? ??? ????? ???? ???? ??? ? ??? ???? ????, ?? ??? ????? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ??

?????? ?? ? ????. ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ????? ???, ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ????.

??????: ??? ???? ????

??????(ABF) ??? ??? ??? ??? ????? ???? ???, ?? ???? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ????. ??? ??????? ??? ???? ??? ? ?? ??? ??? ???? ??, ?????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?????. ? ??, ?????? ?? ??? ?? ????? ?? ???, ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?? ???? ???. ?????? ??? ??? ???? ?????, ????
???? ??, ??? ?? ??, ?? ??? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?????.

??, ?? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ????? ???? ??? ? ? ????. ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? ????. ?? ??, ???, ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ?? ? ????. ??? ????? ??? ?? ?? ???? ???? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ?? ??? ? ????.

??? ?? ?? ???? ???? ???? ??????? ? ???? ???, ?? ?? ???????? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? ??? ?? ???? ????. ?????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??·?? ??? ????? ??? ? ????.

?? ??

?? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ???? ?? ??? ????? ??? ????? ? ????. ???? ??, ??? ?????, ??? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ???? ???? ?? ??? ?? ? ????.

??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??, ?? ??? ????? ??? ??, ??? ????? ??????? ??? ?? ??, ?? ?? ?? ???? ???? ??????? ?????, ????? ??? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ?????. ???? ??? ???? ???? ???? ? ?? ????.

Endnotes

  1. Greenstreet CPPI, October 2025.
  2. S&P, September 2025.
  3. Cushman & Wakefield, Q2 2025.
  4. Brookfield internal research.
  5. Pitchbook Leveraged Commentary and Data, September 2025.

Disclosures

This commentary and the information contained herein are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an advertisement for, any securities, related financial instruments or investment advisory services. This commentary discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic or market conditions. It is not intended to provide an overview of the terms applicable to any products sponsored by Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and its affiliates (together, “Brookfield”).

This commentary contains information and views as of the date indicated and such information and views are subject to change without notice. Certain of the information provided herein has been prepared based on Brookfield’s internal research and certain information is based on various assumptions made by Brookfield, any of which may prove to be incorrect. Brookfield may have not verified (and disclaims any obligation to verify) the accuracy or completeness of any information included herein including information that has been provided by third parties and you cannot rely on Brookfield as having verified such information. The information provided herein reflects Brookfield’s perspectives and beliefs. 

Investors should consult with their advisors prior to making an investment in any fund or program, including a Brookfield-sponsored fund or program.